PRLog (Press Release) – Apr 25, 2011 – The new Bolivia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.71% of Latin American regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 0.48% of supply. Latin American regional use averaged an estimated 7.88mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It should rise to 8.07mn b/d in 2011 and reach 8.69mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production averaged an estimated 10.03mn b/d in 2010 and is set to rise to 11.66mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports have been slipping, because demand growth has exceeded the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region exported an average of 3.46mn b/d. This total fell to an estimated 2.15mn b/d in 2010, but is forecast to rebound to 2.97mn b/d in 2015. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia and Brazil.
The region consumed an estimated 209bn cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas in 2010, with demand of 264bcm targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 221bcm in 2010 should reach 273bcm in 2015, implying more than 8bcm of net exports at the end of the period. Bolivia's share of gas consumption was an estimated 1.29% in 2010, while its share of production was 5.98%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 1.24%, with the country accounting for 6.96% of supply.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the clo manual trash compactor sing weeks of the year.
We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February.
Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to Kenmore Bisque 15 inchi supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to s helicop ter technology ee what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April.
BMI calculates Bolivian real GDP growth of 3.4% in 2010, with a 3.4% average annual increase also forecast for 2010-2015. There is increased state control of oil and gas operations, thanks to government policy supportive of re-nationalisation. This means the burden of development falls heavily on stateowned Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB) and its few remaining international oil company (IOC) partners. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 56,000b/d by 2015, with the country expected to pump 57,000b/d in 2011. Consumption beyond 2010 is forecast to increase by around 2-3% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 62,000b/d by the end of the forecast period.
Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast a decrease in Bolivian oil production of 8.9%, with crude volumes peaking in 2012 at 60,000b/d before falling steadily to 51,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 26.8%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 69,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise steadily, from an estimated 13.2bcm in 2010 to 22.0bcm by 2020. With demand growth of 48%, this implies that export potential will rise from an estimated 10.5bcm in 2010 to 18.0bcm by 2020. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
A composite Business Environment Rating (BER) of just 38 (out of 100) ranks Bolivia ninth out of 10 countries in BMI's Latin America universe, reflecting low ratings for both the upstream and downstream business segments. Bolivia takes eighth place in BMI's upstream ratings, 12 points ahead of Chile and Mexico, and three points behind Ecuador. Its proven gas resources and gas reserves-to-production ratio (RPR) work in the country's favour, but are undermined by the state's greater control of rc helicopter market place assets, deteriorating licensing regime and generally unappealing risk environment. The country is at the foot of the league table in BMI's updated downstream ratings, reflecting its state-controlled refining and marketing segment, modest capacity and less competitive environment, offset by a relatively low level of retail site intensity and the country's gas self-sufficiency. Venezuela is immediately ahead of Bolivia in the regional rankings, but the seven-point gap is unlikely to be bridged in the near future.
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