PRLog (Press Release) – Apr 23, 2011 – This latest Croatia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.66% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, while contributing just 0.13% to regional supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 6.09mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.93mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8.89mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 13.78mn b/d in 2010. It is set to rise to 15.08mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply ex rc helicopter market place pansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.47mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 7.69mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 8.15mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the most garbage compactor review important trash bins exporter.
The region consumed an estimated 636.3bn cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas in 2010, with demand of 736.3bcm targeted for 2015, representing 15.7% growth. Production of an estimated 787.9bcm in 2010 should reach 954.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 151.6bcm in 2010 to 217.9bcm by the end of the period. Croatia's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 0.47%, while its share of production is put at 0.25%. By 2015, its share of demand is forecast to be 0.61%, with the country accounting for 0.31% of supply.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February.
Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April.
BMI calculates that Croatian real GDP fell 1.6% in 2010 and we forecast average annual growth of 2.3% from 2011-2015. Consumption of oil is set to grow more slowly than the underlying economy, increasing by less than 1.5% per annum over the forecast period and reaching 115,000b/d by 2015. Imports are therefore set to rise from an estimated 84,000b/d in 2010 to no more than 95,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Former state oil group INA is attempting to raise local supply in partnership with major shareholder MOL, but we expect to see a steady decline in oil and liquids production, from the estimated 2010 level of 24,000b/d to no more than 20,000b/d by 2015. We expect gas output of an estimated 2.0bcm in 2010 to have reached 3.0bcm by 2015. Consumption is forecast to rise from an estimated 3.0bcm in 2010 to 4.5bcm by 2015, re Kenmore Bisque 15 inchi quiring imports of 1.5bcm.
Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast an increase in Croatian oil consumption of 17.2%, with crude import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 82,000b/d to 108,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas production is expected to fall from an estimated 2.0bcm in 2010 to a peak of 3.0bcm before easing to 2.3bcm by 2020. Import dependency therefore increases to 3.2bcm during the period. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Croatia holds 13th place in BMI's composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It shares eighth place with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in BMI's updated upstream ratings. The minimal oil and gas reserves and poor production outlook work against the country, but are offset somewhat by privatisation progress and reasonable country risk factors. There is virtually no chance that Croatia can pull away from its low-scoring rivals, given their greater hydrocarbons potential. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are much more likely to leave Croatia behind.
Croatia occupies last place in BMI's downstream BERs, with few particularly high scores and no reason to expect near-term progress up the rankings. Oil and gas demand are among the region's lowest, as is the oil demand growth outlook. Population, nominal GDP and growth in GDP per capita are also low-scoring areas.
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