PRLog (Press Release) – Jul 14, 2011 – According to BMI's new extended power forecasts, Vietnam's power generation and consumption are both expected to rise sharply in the coming Kenmore Bisque 15 inchi years owning to significant economic and demographic growth. BMI now forecasts power consumption in Vietnam to increase from an estimated 84.56TWh in 2010 to 133.36TWh in 2015, while rc helicopter market place electricity supply will increase from an estimated 91.81TWh to 139.66TWh over the same period. There is, however, a real risk of persistent electricity shortages if the power industry cannot deliver adequate new capacity as demand soars.
The country's draft Master Plan VII for 2010-2020 estimates that an additional capacity of 4,100MW will be required per year on average during the 2011-2015 time period to meet rapidly growing demand in Vietnam. In line with it, the government and its state-owned monopoly Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) have presented ambitious plans to construct numerous thermal, hydro and even nuclear power plants in the coming years. Vietnam's power generation system relies mainly on thermal power and hydropower, and according to our forecasts these two resources will play an increasingly important role in the medium to long term.
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Yet, so far, the country has showed a limited ability manual trash compactor to attract foreign investment in order to fund improvements to its power infrastructure, especially due to artificially capped prices. Furthermore, we highlight that Vietnam should devote more attention and funding to its electricity transmission and distribution network, as the country is already suffering from high levels of electricity wastages due to an inefficient grid system. From this perspective, BMI b helicop ter technology elieves that the hike in electricity prices approved in March 2011 by the Vietnamese government was a step in the right direction.
On top of the policy changes affecting pricing, key themes for Vietnam's power sector this quarter include:
* In March 2011, the Vietnamese government authorised an increase in electricity prices with a view to mobilise long-term investment and meet the country's burgeoning power demands. In April 2011, it also approved a market-based system, allowing electricity prices to be adjusted when the cost of basic inputs - energy and commodities - rises beyond the current parameters used to determine electricity prices. Depending on market conditions, electricity prices can be adjusted as often as once every quarter. The policy will take effect at the start of June 2011. * In May 2011, Vietnamese oil and gas company Vietnam National Oil and Gas Group (PetroVietnam) and coal producer and supplier Vietnam National Coal and Minerals Industry Group (Vinacomin) announced that EVN owes both companies a combined total of VND6.6trn (US$320mn). BMI believes that these debts reinforce the need for ongoing reforms in Vietnam's electricity sector. * In February 2011, Japan's TEPCO concluded a trustee agreement with Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) to produce a master plan for a power supply project in Vietnam. This involvement by TEPCO is a positive move as BMI believes that a highly efficient transmission grid is crucial in ensuring that Vietnam's power plant projects are able to effectively address the country's electricity shortages. Yet, we note that these developments might be delayed or, cancelled altogether, due to TECO's difficulties following the accident at the Fukushima power plant.
Report Table of Contents:
SWOT Analysis - Vietnam Power SWOT Global Industry Overview - Table: Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) - Table: Total Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) - Table: Total Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (MW) Regional Industry Overview - Table: Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) - Table: Total Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) - Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (MW) - Table: Nuclear Power In Asia Industry Forecast Scenario - Country Snapshot (Macro) - Table: Economic And Demographic Data, 2010-2020 - Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector - Electricity Generation - Table: Vietnam Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) - Table: Vietnam Total Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) - Electricity Consumption - Table: Vietnam Total Net Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) - Table: Vietnam Total Net Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) - Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports - Table: Vietnam Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) - Table: Vietnam Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) - Table: Vietnam Power Trade Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) - Table: Vietnam Power Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) - Power Capacity - Table: Vietnam Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (MW) - Table: Vietnam Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (MW) - Vietnam Power Forecast Scenario Competitive Landscape/Company Monitor - Electricity Of Vietnam (EVN) Glossary Of Terms - Glossary Of Terms Methodology And Sources - Industry Forecasts - Data Methodology - Generation And Consumption Data - Data Methodology - Electricity Generation Capacity Data - Sources
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